Bulgaria’s new anti-establishment party There Is Such a People (ITN) remains closely tied in popularity with the centre-right GERB, which has been in power for most of the past decade, ahead of a July 11 snap election, an opinion poll showed on Thursday.
Anger at graft-prone political elites, which many blame for ensuring Bulgaria remains the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt member state, has boosted support for ITN, founded by TV talk-show host Slavi Trifonov.
Thursday’s poll by Sofia-based Alpha Research showed support for ITN has risen to 21.8% from the 17.7% it won in an April general election, when it was the second largest party.
The centre-right GERB, led by long-serving former prime minister Boyko Borissov has mobilised its supporters in the run-up to the Sunday vote and was just 0.3% behind ITN, but was still below the 26.2% it won in April.
GERB emerged as the largest party after the election three months ago, but failed to form a government as other parties have shunned it amid popular anger at entrenched corruption.
Sunday’s snap poll is being held to break the deadlock, after ITN also failed to secure a parliamentary majority.
The opinion poll suggests that support for ITN, and its potential partners, the anti-graft Democratic Bulgaria and Stand Up! Mafia Out! again will not be enough for the three to muster a parliamentary majority and form a government.
Democratic Bulgaria is projected to get 12% of the vote, while Stand Up! Mafia Out! is on course for 5.4%.
“Despite their improved positions, the protest parties do not gain 120 seats” (needed for a majority), the pollster said in a statement. “That is why the coalition formula is likely to be the cornerstone in the next parliament as it was after the April vote.”
Bulgaria has almost doubled the number of voting stations abroad for the Sunday poll – which may boost the results for ITN and Democratic Bulgaria, the main recipients of votes from expatriates in the previous election, analysts say.
Two more parties have a chance to enter the next parliament. The Socialists remained the third-most popular party with 16.4%, while support for the ethnic-Turkish MRF party stood at 11.5%.