Northern leaders have been divided over the possible re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
Findings by Sunday PUNCH revealed that the once monolithic North is now split, with core northerners determined to oust Tinubu in 2027, while northern minorities support his re-election.
Our correspondents noted that although core northerners complain about the President’s unfavourable disposition towards the region, minority groups argue that they have fared well under his administration.
The Middle Belt, southern Kaduna residents, Hausa Christians of Northern Nigeria, and many natives of Plateau State have distanced themselves from the plot to unseat Tinubu.
However, core northerners, represented by various political, socio-cultural, and indigenous groups, insist that Tinubu does not deserve a second term.
The division among northern stakeholders is evident in social media exchanges between former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, and a human rights activist, Senator Shehu Sani, who frequently express differing views on Tinubu’s approach to northern issues, particularly security.
The Arewa Consultative Forum, a key political and cultural association in Northern Nigeria, alongside several prominent northern figures, said the region could not be coerced into re-electing Tinubu.
Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the Secretary General of the group, Murtala Aliyu, stated that the forum remained nonpartisan and would not support or oppose any candidate.
The ACF was responding to a recent statement by the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, Abdullahi Ganduje, who urged northern politicians with presidential ambitions to abandon their aspirations because Tinubu would serve for two terms.
“What we normally do at ACF is to highlight critical issues that the people should consider when choosing a candidate, irrespective of their political party. We do not involve ourselves in promoting or antagonising any candidate,” Aliyu said.
The League of Northern Democrats, a northern group comprising members of the APC, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, vowed to support an alternative candidate in 2027.
The spokesperson for the group, Ladan Salihu, said, “We don’t have a personal agenda against Tinubu, but we believe his government has not delivered. The performance indicators do not add up to justify northern support.
“The government has not met expectations, and we in the North are not convinced he deserves another opportunity. Even those who voted for him are now filled with regret. His administration has brought hardship, poverty and agony to the people.
“No northerner with a conscience can claim to be impressed with Tinubu’s performance. He may have the best intentions, but the system he is working with is flawed and unsustainable. It cannot deliver on the promises he made to the North.”
Salihu also hinted at the possibility of a new political movement to field a northern candidate against Tinubu in 2027.
“Yes, there is a possibility, because we are not convinced that this government can lift Nigeria out of its current predicament,” he said.
Similarly, the National Coalition of Northern Groups warned that the North would not vote for Tinubu if economic conditions did not improve.
In an interview with Sunday PUNCH, the coalition president, Jamilu Charanchi, stated that the North, which holds the majority of votes, would not re-elect Tinubu if economic hardship persisted.
“It is the people who will decide who leads the country—there is no doubt about that. The North has a majority. It is up to President Tinubu to make the right decisions so that people will re-elect him. If he continues on this path, I can tell you clearly that people will not vote for him,” he said.
Urging Nigerians to vote wisely, Charanchi advised the electorate to choose leaders based on competence, capacity, integrity and adherence to the rule of law.
He said, “Nigerians should not allow themselves to be manipulated by politicians. They should vote based on merit and mobilise others to elect leaders who will lift the country out of its current crisis.”
Charanchi described Ganduje’s comment as troubling and disheartening, stating that it indicated the APC chairman was out of touch with reality.
“Is he satisfied with Nigeria’s failing economy? Does he believe these failures are acceptable or justified?” he asked.
A former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, had previously hinted at northern efforts to remove Tinubu in 2027.
Lawal recently declared his intention to work with El-Rufai to prevent Tinubu’s re-election.
In an interview, Lawal blamed Tinubu’s economic policies for worsening poverty and hardship in Northern Nigeria.
“The North is seriously mobilising with a consensus that Bola Tinubu must step down in the 2027 election. There is no doubt about this consensus.
“I may not have always agreed with El-Rufai, but on this issue, I will join him to stop Tinubu from winning the 2027 election. If Tinubu wins, northern Nigeria will turn into one large refugee camp,” he said.
El-Rufai, on Monday, shared on his X handle an opinion by a chieftain of the party, Uche Diala, who warned that if Tinubu was not careful, he might face the same fate as former President Goodluck Jonathan ahead of the 2027 election.
The article stated, “I have read and heard the arrogant posturing and braggadocio by some people who I refer to as political rabble-rousers, but I get more worried each day as it keeps looking more and more like a movie we had seen before.
“May I remind some persons that, more than the performance or lack thereof of the President Goodluck Jonathan administration, it was his attitude, and that of people around him, towards the North that ultimately brought him down and by extension the PDP that had boasted that it would rule Nigeria for 60 years.”
El-Rufai himself had on his X handle criticised the APC, lamenting the lack of internal democracy and active party structures within the party.
He wrote “I no longer recognise the APC. No party organ has met in two years—no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show.”
However, the northern minorities distanced themselves from the plot to oust Tinubu.
One of the notable northern minority groups, the Middle Belt Forum, stated that the region had decided to support a southern presidency in 2027.
The MBF argued that the region had received a better deal under the current administration than under former President Muhammadu Buhari, despite prevailing economic hardships.
According to the MBF’s spokesman, Luka Binniyat, the Middle Belt has secured more political appointments at the national level and more infrastructural projects than under the previous government.
Sunday PUNCH noted that Middle Belt indigenes in Tinubu’s administration include the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume (Benue State), and the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda (Plateau State).
“We are having a better deal under Bola Tinubu than under Buhari, even though we are all experiencing economic hardship like everyone else.
“The Middle Belt Forum, for sure, still stands for a southern presidency in 2027. So, it is up to President Tinubu to up his game to attract the Middle Belt when an alternative candidate emerges in 2027,” Binniyat said.
Similarly, indigenous Hausa Christians of Northern Nigeria dissociated themselves from the plot to remove Tinubu in 2027, stating that they would not be pressured into making a decision that could negatively impact the social well-being of their people.
According to the Christian group, Tinubu’s administration had demonstrated a commitment to addressing the insecurity that has plagued many northern states.
“All we want at the moment is inclusivity, as we have many qualified individuals and seasoned politicians capable of holding political office.
“Instead of calling for the President’s removal in 2027, we are urging him to consider some of our people for appointments, as we refuse to inherit anyone’s enemies,” said the National Chairman of the group, Daniel Musa.
Some indigenes of Plateau State also declared support for Tinubu’s second term.
Speaking with Sunday PUNCH under the auspices of the Plateau Initiative for the Development and Advancement of the Natives in Jos, the indigenes acknowledged the President’s contributions to the development of their region.
The association’s Secretary General, Dickson Auta, said, “He (Tinubu) has indeed shown that he is a detribalised leader because he has been striving to spread developmental projects across every part of the country.
“Our people are only concerned about good governance, and if Mr President continues on this developmental path, I am sure our people will have no choice but to support his ambition in 2027 should he decide to run for a second term. In fact, we are already supporting him.”
Also, the Southern Kaduna People’s Union commended Tinubu for appointing individuals from Southern Kaduna to key positions.
A spokesperson for SOKAPU, Josiah Abraks, cited the appointment of Gen. Christopher Musa as Chief of Defence Staff and the establishment of the Federal University of Applied Science, Kachia, as examples of the President’s inclusivity, which has benefited the people of Southern Kaduna.
“The southern part of Kaduna is willing to partner with whoever is ready to work with us to ensure our growth and development,” he added.
