President Donald Trump’s recent actions have sparked concerns about a potential realignment of US foreign policy, one that may benefit Russian interests at the expense of NATO and global democracy. From withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement to criticising European allies for their defence spending, Trump’s “America First” policy has created divisions within NATO and weakened Western solidarity. But what does Trump’s Russia pivot mean for the future of global democracy and NATO’s role in maintaining international order?
The intricate web of global politics has long been shaped by the interplay between the United States, Russia, and China. From Cold War tensions to modern strategic alliances, these relationships continue to evolve, influencing global security, economic stability, and diplomatic engagements.
Today, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has reignited debates about US foreign policy, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s role, and the growing cooperation between Russia and China in countering Western influence. However, a new concern looms: President Trump’s stance on this geopolitical power struggle. Is the US retreating from its global fight for democracy? And if Russia finds an ally in the US under Trump’s leadership, could NATO and the world order it upholds be at risk?
US-Russia-China relations were shaped by Cold War dynamics. After WWII, the US and Soviet Union emerged as rivals, competing ideologically and militarily until the USSR’s dissolution in 1991. US-China ties were initially strained after the Chinese Communist Party took power in 1949 but improved following the Sino-Soviet split, leading to Nixon’s 1972 visit.
Since 2014, Russia and China have strengthened ties to counter US influence. The US has consistently supported Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia after Crimea’s annexation and increasing military aid following Russia’s 2022 invasion. This aligns with US efforts to deter authoritarian aggression and uphold international law.
Despite its stance on collective defence, the US’s current approach towards Russia raises questions about its commitment to these principles.
The state of US-Russia, NATO, and European relations has begun taking a new dimension since Trump’s initial presidency in 2017. Trump has expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, questioned NATO’s relevance, and criticised European allies for their defence spending.
Since assuming office in January 2025, President Trump has implemented several policies that suggest a shift in US relations with Russia.
A few minutes after his inauguration on January 20, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. This move could shift global alliances, as Russia has historically been less aggressive in its climate commitments compared to Western nations. By stepping away from international climate efforts, the US may create opportunities for Russia to increase its influence in energy and economic negotiations.
In addition, he also signed an executive order on January 21, 2025, withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organisation. While this decision is not directly linked to Russia, it could weaken Western cooperation on global health initiatives, an area where Russia has sought to expand its influence.
On February 28, 2025, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The meeting initially intended to discuss a mining deal, turned tense when Trump accused Zelenskyy of risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia.
Zelenskyy, who according to report, was meeting with Trump to convince him not to side with Russian President then told Trump that there would be “no compromises with a killer on our territory”.
As a result, Trump and Vance reportedly berated Zelenskyy for not expressing gratitude for US aid, leading to the abrupt cancellation of a planned joint press conference and a minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine.
Following this meeting, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that US military aid to Ukraine could be withheld if no progress was made toward peace. This position aligns with Russian interests, as it could weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities and force negotiations on terms potentially favourable to Russia.
Collectively, these actions indicate a potential realignment of US foreign policy that may benefit Russian interests, particularly in reducing military support for Ukraine and reshaping global alliances in ways that could weaken Western unity.
Trump has historically shown reluctance to confront Russia aggressively. For instance, he questioned sanctions on Russia and suggested recognising Crimea as Russian territory.
These positions align with a broader pattern of rhetoric that appears accommodating towards Moscow. While institutional checks during his previous term ensured that sanctions against Russia remained in place, Trump’s current stance has created confusion about US policy coherence and its role in maintaining global peace.
Trump’s policies could be seen as indirectly favouring Russia by creating divisions within NATO and weakening Western solidarity. This would align with Russia’s strategic goal of reducing US influence in Europe and fracturing transatlantic unity.
First is that Trump’s “America First” policy prioritises US domestic interests over multilateral commitments, including those with NATO, WHO, climate and Europe has created a perception of a US pivot away from Europe and closer to Russia.
As America moves towards Russia through Trump, this approach could weaken NATO by undermining the principle of collective defence. Trump’s criticism of European countries for not meeting the two per cent gross domestic product defence spending target has already strained transatlantic unity.
Notably, if Trump succeeds in reducing US military support or questions NATO’s Article 5 (collective defence clause), it could embolden Russian aggression in Europe and destabilise the alliance.
Is there a reason Trump is sidelining Europe, opposing Ukraine, and weakening NATO? Are his actions merely to prioritise domestic over multinational responsibility? Or is he pressuring Europe on issues such as immigration?
Yet, Europe remains heavily dependent on the US for both security and economic stability. For instance, Europe relies on US military assets such as intelligence and missile defence, which are crucial for NATO’s collective defence framework. The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s inability to defend itself without US support, underscoring decades of underinvestment in defence capabilities.
Economically, Europe is deeply intertwined with the US through significant trade relations across sectors such as technology and finance. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has turned to the US for energy supplies, further deepening economic interdependence.
To remain relevant, Europe should prioritise strategic autonomy by increasing defence spending and fostering cross-border cooperation. Initiatives such as the European Defence Fund and Permanent Structured Cooperation are crucial for modernising capabilities. Economically, Europe needs to diversify supply chains and foster innovation to remain competitive.
Europe should also balance strategic autonomy with strategic interdependence by coordinating with allies such as the US while building its capabilities.
This involves addressing weaknesses in defence, energy, and industrial policy while maintaining unity among member states. By fostering collaboration within the European Union and with global partners, Europe can strengthen its geopolitical position without compromising transatlantic ties.
Meanwhile, Ukraine requires sustained military, economic, and humanitarian support from NATO and the EU. This includes continued weapons deliveries, financial aid for reconstruction, and political backing for EU membership. Europe should lead in rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure and ensuring accountability for Russian war crimes.
NATO, on the other hand, must adapt to evolving threats by reinforcing its eastern flank and ensuring members meet defence spending commitments. Strengthening partnerships with non-NATO allies is crucial. The alliance should focus on hybrid warfare capabilities to counter cyberattacks and disinformation.
