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On Saturday, while the governorship elections were ongoing in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa states, I appeared as a panelist on PRIMANEWS Online’s live television programme, Election Watch, anchored by my colleague, Melony Ishola.
Alongside another colleague, Adekunle Sulaimon, we touched on many issues arising from the elections: security situation, level of preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission, low turnout of voters and the chances of the major contenders among others.
While signing off on the set, the anchor put us on the spot when she asked that we predict what the outcomes of the elections would look like in the three states. Since it was a live programme, I couldn’t decline, so I ended up giving a verdict the way I saw it. Like a pundit, I said Hope Uzodimma of Imo State and Douye Diri of Bayelsa State would retain their seats while Yahaya Bello’s anointed candidate in Kogi State, Usman Ododo, would also have his way.
While collation of results was ongoing across the three states, I waited with bated breath to see how far I could go in the prediction. In the early hours of Sunday, the first of my predictions clicked when Uzodimma was declared the winner of the election in his state. Later in the day, the second prediction also went through when Ododo of the All Progressives Congress was declared the Kogi State governor-elect. What gave me 100 per cent in my prediction happened on Monday afternoon when Diri was re-elected in Bayelsa.
The truth, however, is that I did not deploy any special skill to hit the bull’s-eye in my prediction. It was just the application of the knowledge of Nigeria’s unique politics. In arriving at my conclusion, I merely considered the unique nature of the nation’s politics.
In the case of Imo State, I was sure that Uzodimma would not spare any effort to retain his seat having been offered a lifeline by the Supreme Court after the previous election. We are all witnesses to the fact that a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, of the Peoples Democratic Party was initially declared the winner of the election before the apex court ruled in Uzodimma’s favour. The rest, as they say, is history.
One would have thought that Ihedioha would give it a shot again and see if fortune would smile on him again. It was therefore surprising that he did not even bother to seek his party’s ticket. He did not disclose the reason behind this decision. But my inkling tells me that he might have realised early enough the futility of contesting against an incumbent like Uzodimma. Maybe that was why the PDP candidate, Samuel Anyanwu, did not resign as the party’s National Secretary before going into the contest. I saw videos of how he was quick to return to his Wadata Plaza, Abuja office on Tuesday barely 48 hours after he lost the election and I smiled. There was indeed wisdom in Ihedioha’s decision.
The situation in Bayelsa had a similarity with that of Imo State. David Lyon of the APC had earlier been declared the governor-elect, having won the November 2019 governorship election. He was busy with rehearsal on the eve of his inauguration when the Supreme Court sacked him based on the sins of his running mate, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, who was found guilty of presenting false information to INEC in aid of his qualification for the November 16 governorship election in the state.
It would be unwise to expect Diri to allow the governorship to slip again. It is just natural that he puts in all that is required to retain his seat.
The battle for the Lugard House in Kogi State was an ego thing for Yahaya Bello whose first term in office can best be described as a child of circumstance. It was the death of Abubakar Audu, the winner of the 2016 governorship election in the state before his declaration by INEC that threw up Bello who came second in the party’s primary. The man being referred to as the white lion is almost done with his two terms of eight years and as Nigerian politicians do, he was ready to pull out all the stops to install a successor. That was what threw up Ododo.
One person who has seen through off-cycle elections and wants an end to them is former President Goodluck Jonathan. Speaking in his hometown Otuoke, Bayelsa State while taking part in the election on Saturday, Jonathan called on the National Assembly to enact a law stopping off-cycle elections. He expressed concern that if the country continued with off-season polls, a time would come when the presidential election might become an off-cycle election. He described off-season as odd and not a global best practice, urging the National Assembly to ensure the practice was blocked.
“I get worried about the issue of off-season elections, and I will use this unique opportunity to plead with the National Assembly that we need to block off-season elections. It is very odd; it’s not a global best practice. A country can elect its people at different times, like the American election and some countries. They may not elect everybody at the same time but the only time they go on to conduct elections, they elect everybody that is supposed to be elected. If we continue with this trend of off-season elections based on the interpretation of our law by a judicial officer, it will come to a time when the presidential election in Nigeria may be conducted off-season,” the former President said.
A senator has, however, disagreed with the former President. As far as he is concerned, the Senator representing Ondo Central, Adeniyi Adegbomire, who is the Chairman, Senate Committee on Agriculture Colleges and Institutions, noted that based on the interpretation of the Nigeria law, the National Assembly won’t pass a law to stop off-season elections, reiterating that it strengthens  democracy.
He said, “It is a constitutional matter and the Supreme Court has been clear about it. The constitution says you shall be sworn in for a term of four years. That four years start from the day you were sworn in as a governor or President.”
Whether they are off-season or regular general elections, however, the process must be credible. All organisations saddled with this responsibility must be ready to make it possible. The era of determining outcomes of elections before they are held must end. Those who are confident that they will always have their ways irrespective of what the voters say or feel should be dealt it. Nigerians’ votes must count!

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